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The Nitish echo
Nitish Kumar’s pragmatic choice reinforces a fraught idea — of Hindu consolidation and Muslim peripherality

The Nitish echo
Nitish Kumar’s pragmatic choice reinforces a fraught idea — of Hindu consolidation and Muslim peripherality

Written by Ashutosh Varshney | Updated: August 3, 2017 10:28 am

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi wave at gathering
after their swearing-in ceremony recently. (Source: PTI Photo)

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‘decision’ to construct abattoirBirthplace of Chaitanya Mahaprabhu: BJP
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The significance of Nitish Kumar’s embrace of the BJP cannot be
overstated. The BJP’s stunning victory in UP, and now its return to
power in Bihar, undoubtedly consolidates its hold over Indian politics.
But is that all?

Over the last few days, it has repeatedly been
said that ideology has ceased to matter in Indian politics, and a
full-blown political marketplace, where the price of victory and defeat
is calculated with the finesse of a stock-broker, has emerged. It has
also been suggested that the so-called millennials, those born in the
decade of the 1990s, are less ideologically inclined and more interested
in economic aspirations and India’s glory on the world stage. They are
ushering in an ideological erosion in Indian politics.

While it
is worth figuring out what the millennials want, Nitish Kumar’s
calculations may have little to do with it. India’s OBC politics, which
nurtured Nitish (as well as Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav), has
always combined ideology and pragmatism. When politics was dominated by
the Congress, the various Janata or Samajwadi parties, which represented
OBC politics, often sought coalitions with Hindu nationalists: As
during the days of the Samyukta Vidhayak Dals (SVDs) in the late 1960s,
when real opportunities for non-Congress state governments first
emerged; as also during the Janata days, 1977-80. After the late 1980s,
some of these parties teamed up with the BJP, others with the Congress.
Mulayam and Lalu have been closer to the Congress, while the likes of
Nitish and George Fernandes have mostly allied with the BJP.

This
coalitional history at one level is paradoxical. The OBCs constitute
about 43-45 per cent of the country’s population, higher than any other
caste grouping. Yet a political party representing them all has not
emerged. The ideologies of OBC parties have also been roughly similar.
Caste-based social justice, seeking higher representation of lower
castes in political power, bureaucracy, police and education, has been
their key argument. They have always said that upper castes, not more
than 15-16 per cent of India, have controlled power, dominated
opportunities, and treated lower castes shabbily. Finally, they also
believe that state power is the best way to correct historical wrongs;
movement politics would take too long. They would rather be in power
than outside the state, agitating.

Despite ideological
similarities, these parties have a history of splits. One reason is
structural, the other personality-based. The so-called “graded
inequalities” of the caste system constitute the structural reason. The
three-fold characterisation of the caste order — upper, OBC, and Dalit —
is an abstract aggregation. Each category is marked by internal
hierarchies. There are upper OBCs and lower OBCs. It is not simply the
upper castes that have looked down upon the lower castes; those placed
higher among the OBCs have not treated those ranked lower well either.
The idea of a united OBC party thus runs into structural difficulties,
even at the state level.

Second, for reasons not fully
understood, all OBC parties rely on charismatic leaders and dynasties.
They often clash and split their units away. This phenomenon marks even
the more institutionalised OBC parties like the southern Dravidian
parties. Take Lalu and his family away from the RJD, and the party would
fall apart. Take Nitish away from the JD(U), and the organisation would
wither away.

Because the OBC platform remains fragmented, these
parties seek alliances in search of power. With few exceptions, the
ideology of alliance partners has historically been less important for
them than the prospect of acquiring, or remaining in, power. Nitish’s
latest move does not constitute a historic novelty. It is consistent
with his past, as well as in correspondence with the tradition of such
parties. If they believed in movement politics, not state power, these
parties would be ideologically purer.

Though not a surprise, the
future implications of Nitish’s move are very serious. One has already
been extensively commented on. He has expressed “no confidence” not only
in Lalu, but also in Rahul Gandhi. Lalu’s power in Bihar is a threat to
him; and he has given up on Rahul’s ability to be a more effective
national leader.

Since Nitish was widely expected to be a leading
figure in a potential grand alliance of non-BJP parties to contest Modi
in 2019, his departure has a major signaling effect. More politicians
are likely to give up on Rahul Gandhi and switch sides. How draining the
effect is would depend on how quickly the key non-BJP parties come
together and show political resolve.

They can’t easily project
defence of secularism as their key idea, for if secularists are tainted
with believable charges of corruption, the project of secularism alone
will not take the stain of corruption away. The BJP might not be
incorruptible. Indeed, the Vyapam scandal reveals its corruption. The
BJP also has its favourite capitalists. But in the court of public
opinion, the narrative of secular corruption has stuck. In the short
run, this problem can be overcome only if the Opposition can credibly
demonstrate that the BJP, too, is corrupt. And the people have to
believe that assertion.

One more implication of Nitish’s move has
not been noted. In terms of long-term reconfiguration of Indian
politics, it could be far and away the most serious. It is the idea that
the Muslim vote can be rendered irrelevant. The UP elections showed
that. Bihar, too, has a large Muslim population and Nitish heavily
relied on it in 2015. Does he, after UP, think that election victories
in Bihar can be constructed with the votes of upper castes, segments of
OBCs and parts of the Dalit community? He can’t possibly be unaware that
an alliance with the BJP at this political moment implies erosion of
the Muslim vote.

Historically, the Muslim vote has been
electorally significant in UP and Bihar. If what happened in UP is
repeated in Bihar, non-BJP politicians in other states too might take
the cue and strategise on the assumption of Muslim peripherality. The
BJP is dominant today, but if the idea of Hindu consolidation and Muslim
irrelevance becomes a political reality, the BJP will move from
dominance to hegemony. It is not the end of ideology in Indian politics.
Nitish’s act of pragmatism might make the ideological questions more
fraught.

The writer is director, Centre for Contemporary South
Asia, Sol Goldman Professor of International Studies and the Social
Sciences, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown
University

What is happening is thet the fraud EVMs are being
used by the BJP (Bahuth Jiyadha Psychopaths) to win elections. The
Central and state governments selected by these fraud EVMs have to be
dissolved and go for fresh polls with paper ballots. The the BJP will
not get even 1% votes. Till the elections are conducted with paper
ballots all sorts of miscalculations will continue.

—
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